People are vanishing

There was another attack this morning (Tuesday) on Kyiv.

Domestically, Iran might seems to be tumbling in around itself, but the drones it is providing to the Russians continue to help reduce Ukrainian infrastructure to rubble.

Four people have been confirmed dead this morning after the latest strike, and, as usual, countless more have been injured.

The air alarm is going off as I am writing this letter.

It is strange, it is becoming more common for people to vanish. One day you are sitting with them, sharing a cigarette and a laugh, then the next they are dead. That’s almost commonplace now. It did not used to be.

The rightful Belarussian president spoke about the death of a young guy in Ukraine earlier this week. I’ve worked with him over the last few months. I’ll not be working with him again.

That is tragic and true and forever.

Before I talk more about some of this stuff, I’ll explain how my own role has changed recently. I’ve been delegated some tasks by the ministry.

Jobs to do

I CANNOT be too explicit, but I will gesture towards what I have been asked to do as much as I can.

Basically, I have been given some important jobs to do. If I am able to raise enough money and do some of these things, I can state with confidence that it will bring a great benefit to Ukraine.

One of the things I have been asked to do, which I can state explicitly, is to form Legenda here in Ukraine.

The work of Legenda in the past has an overlap in the remediation of war pollution, as well as finding victims of war and war crimes.

As the weeks roll on, the Ukrainians are showing even more willingness to work with foreigners.

There are still significant numbers of volunteers from the West joining groups of different shades here in order to help the Ukrainians in whatever way they can. This is good for Ukraine.

Alliance and allegiance

IRAN has been clear about who they are backing in this conflict. They have not hesitated. They are behind Putin. They will back him to the hilt.

However, they have been less open about the drones they have been giving to the Russians. However, what they say and what we know are two different things.

And it is not only we in the West who know this.

My guess is that nations to the East are watching carefully too, waiting for the right moment to pledge their allegiance one way or the other.

There appears to be sufficient geopolitical incentives for a nation like Israel to get involved and help the Ukrainians. Loud voices within the powerful Middle-eastern nation has been advocating for Israeli intervention in the form of arms supplies. This will infuriate many within the Kremlin, and for good reason. Israel has shown on the battlefield in military history on more than a few occasions its ability to defeat much larger forces.

Fire and ice

REGARDING the battlefront, there are some steady progresses being made in the South.

However, around the Bakhmut area, the place where I was in early August as the battle was forming, involved in evacuations a couple of weeks ago, the fighting is getting even more intense, closer.

The Russians seem to be making small gains in the east at the moment, but everyone here is now waiting for the equaliser to arrive. Everyone is waiting, thinking; when is the winter going to come?

It is expected that the cutting, freezing cold will slow a lot of operations down, and maybe even grind some to a halt.

When the ice does come, however, we just hope that the drone damage to Ukraine’s civil infrastructure is not so extensive that it leaves people with no means to heat their homes.

If this is the case, and the temperature gets down to minus 20, thousands could be found dead in their homes when the spring brings the thaw.

Crossing the nuclear line

A WEEK of real jeopardy just passed us without the worst being realised.

Putin’s finger never put pressure on the nuclear button, thankfully.

It seems to me that if there was going to turn into a nuclear showdown, last week was the time that it was most likely to happen, to date, anyway.

Yes, if he was going to be true to his word, last week would have been the time.

What it proves is that it was a bluff, or that it will take more than he initially said before he is willing to start a nuclear war.

This, we should all agree, is good for the world.