Winter might not freeze the conflict

All our preparations are in place. Soon we will embark on our first training exercise since Legenda (the NGO I work with) signed the pact with the government.

I cannot be too specific – a number of operations over here have been blown already because of incautious reporting – but we are going to meet up at the ministry some day soon and drive in a convoy towards the southern front. Again, I cannot say exactly where, but I can tell you what we will be doing once we arrive in one of the newly liberated territories.

As well as that, I’m going to explain a bit about the help that the Ukrainians are going to need in order to reestablish their infrastructure. In short, they cannot do it alone.

On top of that, we’ll talk about Kherson, about the winter, and about what might lay ahead in the months that are to come.

But first, the West’s role in helping rebuild Ukraine.

The rebuild

I DON’T think it is realistic or reasonable to rely on the Ukrainians to reestablish their infrastructure whilst they are still embroiled in an all-out war. That would be like asking a bleeding man to remove his bullet and clean his wound.

No, it is going to take a lot of funding from the West to get war-torn Ukraine back on its feet. However, it is encouraging to know that tens of millions have already been set aside by the West for this very purpose.

There is another potential source of restorative revenue, however. Hopefully, when this all ends there will be an acknowledgement from Russia that they made a huge mistake, and, perhaps, this remorse will be expressed in a sum of money to help rebuild some of that which their mistake destroyed.

The work ahead

WHEN we get to the southern front, we will begin training. We will meet up with teams and begin teaching them skills that will almost certainly save some of their lives.

First of all it will be mine awareness. It is as it sounds. Everybody in the class will learn what sort of deadly devices will be out there to maim and kill them.

Then we show them how to approach boobytrapped bodies – how to safely tell whether a body is safe or not. Unfortunately, as the Russian forces continue to retreat, more and more bodies are being discreetly laden with explosives. Along with the ministry, we will go into the field in newly liberated territories and check bodies for boobytraps.

My team

in my team there are Latvians, myself, a Ukrainian volunteer, and a Canadian sapper of Ukrainian birth who fled in the 1990s and returned when war broke out to volunteer his services.

It is important that we now have a Ukrainian volunteer too, both symbolically and practically. It’s a milestone to have an indigenous member in the team, and it also an invaluable asset in terms of language, understanding and quick translation.

Kherson

THE eye of the media has focused on Kherson since the counter-offensive began. It’s a very significant strategic point on the map.

Built on the western bank of the Dnipro River, it’s tactically important. Once pushed to the eastern bank of the river, advancing back across is difficult.

This is where the Russians find themselves at the moment.

After having occupied the city for many months, they’ve retreated. However, it might not be as great a coup for the Ukrainians as some would like to imagine.

Speaking in terms of military history, the battle for Kherson was always going to be one of attrition.

With mechanised units fighting in a city, it was very reminiscent of Stalingrad. Big losses were guaranteed as long as both sides persevered. Such a fight means the grinding away of highly mobilised soldiers.

The Russians found themselves being driven back, bit by bit. If they hung in and become stuck between the eastern end of the city and the river, they would have had no way to escape.

Uninterested in engaging in a futile and ultimately costly battle of prestige, the Russian Federation seem to have decided upon a strategic retreat. They are not stupid.

Not even ducks want to sit on the banks of the Dnipro as winter sets in.

What to take away

THE war is not over but a big city has been liberated. I don’t think that it will fall back into Russian hands any time soon.

In fact, I think that Crimea has become a complete target of Ukraine’s. All the best armoury – especially that supplied by the Americans – can now reach the famous bridge that connects Russia to Crimea.

I think the Ukrainians are going to put all their efforts into taking back ‘the Crim’.